The decision by Democratic state Rep. Hans Dunshee to seek a Snohomish County Council seat could help catapult Republicans into the majority in the House next fall.
Dunshee’s selection is considered a slam-dunk, even by others interested in the opening created when Dave Somers was elected county executive.
It won’t happen immediately. Leaders of the county Democratic Party are stretching the appointment process to its calendar limits so Dunshee won’t be pressed into county service until after wrapping up his duties in Olympia in early March.
His departure ensures the 44th Legislative District will be a key battleground in the fight for political control of the state House in 2016.
Right now Democrats outnumber Republicans by the slimmest of margins, 50-48. Lose a seat and the two political parties will share power; two seats and the GOP will seize control for the first time since 1998.
And Republicans like their chances in the 44th District. It is pretty evenly divided between Democratic and Republican voters and the GOP has won tough elections there.
There was a battle royal in 2008 when Democratic Rep. Liz Loomis – who had been appointed to the seat earlier that year – lost to Republican challenger Mike Hope. That race, in which nearly $650,000 was spent by the two sides, ended with Hope winning by 118 votes. Republicans have held onto the seat with Rep. Mark Harmsworth of Mill Creek serving in it today.
As of Wednesday, no Republican had announced their intention to run. Marysville Councilman Rob Toyer is a possible candidate.
Toyer took on Dunshee in 2014 and lost, but not badly. He garnered 48.2 percent of the vote without conducting much of a campaign. He spent less than $10,000 while Dunshee shelled out nearly $170,000.
Other possible candidates are Jim Kellett, a former county Republican Party leader who ran unsuccessfully for state Senate in 2014, and Chris Vallo, chairman of the 44th District Republicans who lost races for the County Council in 2013 and assessor in 2011.
On the Democratic Party side, Dunshee’s decision opens the door for John Lovick to return to Olympia where he reigned with gavel in hand as Speaker Pro Tem.
Lovick wants it. He started talking about it the same day he conceded the county executive’s race to Somers. And Lovick has been contacting precinct committee officers to seek their support for the appointment to Dunshee’s seat, once it’s vacant.
Lovick’s selection would give the party a candidate that voters in the district know and have a history of supporting. Heck, a few might not even realize he ever left the Legislature. On paper, he looks to be the best chance for the party to hold onto the seat.
But there are Democrats who’d prefer Lovick challenge Harmsworth instead. His experience could produce a victory and help the party increase its numbers in the House, they contend.
And that could clear a path for Mike Wilson, a former high school teacher and coach, to be appointed to Dunshee’s seat. Wilson lost a tough race to Harmsworth in 2014 and it won’t be easy to reverse his fortunes in a rematch.
If Wilson’s foe is different, then the results may be too, they’ll argue. And appointing him as representative could boost his standing with a few more voters, they’ll say.
The Snohomish County Council – which is led by Democrats – will eventually make the appointment. It’s a decision that will ignite an electoral battle in the county with the potential to alter the balance of political power statewide.
Political reporter Jerry Cornfield’s blog, The Petri Dish, is at www.heraldnet.com. Contact him at 360-352-8623; jcornfield@heraldnet.com and on Twitter at @dospueblos
